General Election 09 – Politics, Pejoratives and Populism !...

The world's largest democracy goes to elections starting April 16. The 15th Lok Sabha elections will be held in five phases and the results will be announced on May 16. For the first time 40% of India’s population, Generation Y (below 25 years) will avail their adult franchise. The demographics have already resulted in changes in political campaigns. Major political parties have appointed PR agencies to attract youth. Lessons have been drawn from Obama’s campaign and the young are targeted through internet blogs and sms.

Considering that more than 60% of India is employed in unorganized sector, no political party has been able to devise concrete measures to uplift 1/3rd of our population living below poverty line and arrest unemployment. We are still clueless on procedures to revive economy, curb terrorism, improve security, reduce fiscal deficit, arrest inflation, and develop an effective foreign policy.

Perhaps it’s worthwhile using the comical oxymoron - Moderate Taliban. But unfortunately, political parties will never do away with Machiavelli’s wisdom on religion and moral -, “as an instrument to be used to his advantage by the intelligent ruler". Under ideal conditions the dichotomy between psychological phenomena of religion and the social phenomena of politics should render them as separate entity. Hopefully the youth will bring this change. Regardless of all differences and political pejoratives, we continue to remain a tolerant society and that is the reason why our democracy prevails.

The days of getting absolute majority are history. The comparison of the manifestos of the two main parties - BJP and Congress yields some interesting results. When it comes to infrastructure, the BJP manifesto is emphasizing on building more roads connecting all villages; while the Congress manifesto is promising a broadband connection to every village. In an ideal situation, the voters should get both. The election speeches are filled with pejoratives, the pen has been replaced by shoes and votes with cash. The Congress selected “Jai Ho” as their campaign song and BJP counters it by “Bhay Ho”.

Both UPA and NDA are aware that it will be difficult to form a government without the support from the cow belt region. Often politics make strange bedfellows. Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD), Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP), and Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP) have combined forces. They face a stiff opposition from Mayawati (BSP) and from Nitish Kumar in Bihar. The CPI - (M), its antagonism against the nuclear deal and US has weakened their position in their traditional strong holds - West Bengal and Kerala.

The emergence of regional parties coupled with their avarice and aspirations have led to the formation of third and fourth front. These alliances fail to project consistent, coherent, transparent and realistic political manifestos. Alliances are inevitable but they are successful only when political parties display some trust, sagacity and sacrifice. But doesn’t that hold true for any relationship?

Congress has refrained from having any overt pre-poll alliances and aspires to win single handedly. The battle between Gandhi V/s Gandhi looks whimsical. Rahul Gandhi’s strategy to lure the rural mass by dynastic appeals seems ludicrous but worth experimenting. The urban educated mass would never fall prey to any such dynastic patronage. BJP is struggling to gain acceptance but they will gain more seats in Karnataka and Gujarat. However Varun Gandhi’s acerbic speeches would certainly haunt them.

The participation of educated professionals heralds a new era in Indian politics. Only time will tell whether these candidates win or save their deposits. Every constituency has minimum four candidates in fray. No wonder the bookers and psephologists have tough time prognosticating the winner. Moreover the expanding contours of electoral constituencies will pose challenge to many popular leaders.

Mayawati in North, Jailalita and Chandrababu in south, Navin Patnaik in north-east and Sharad Pawar in west would be the probable king makers. It is difficult to guess who will be the next Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister.

Granting statehood to the Telangana (Andhra Pradesh) which accounts for 15 seats has become a key election issue. In a hung Parliament these 15 seats could be decisive. Hence the rush by all political parties to give Indian its 29th State. Ironically India's 714 million voters will have no choice but to elect their 543 representatives based mainly on smaller local and regional issues, rather than big national ones.

The best thing about this election 2009 is the usage of photo electoral rolls in the whole country with the exception of Assam, Nagaland, and Jammu and Kashmir. Hopefully this will bring in greater transparency, prevent impersonation and bogus voting.

One TV channel predicts UPA to have slight lead while other channels predicts the same for NDA. It seems the fate of general election will also be based on perennial issues of caste, corruption, class, religion, money, free rice, exorbitant subsidies and defunct populism. Lessons must be drawn from Jammu & Kashmir election results which symbolize the importance of having two major parties and the belief in democracy.

But what remains to be seen is which alliance receives the President’s invitation to form government and how many months will this fractured government last! This is just the semi-final. The final will be perhaps in another two years!

Until then, let’s use our right of adult franchise and select a government based on national issues and not local issues.